Chapter 7 Exercises
Tea tasting
In Example 7.1.1 (tea tasting), instead of assessing whether the taster has any ability at all, assess whether she has a ``practically-significant'' tasting ability. Specifically, what is the posterior probability that she correctly detects the pouring order at least twice as often as she gets it wrong, under
a) a one-parameter uniform prior,
b) a (one-parameter) sceptical prior with a 80% prior probability of p1=0.5, and a uniform distribution on p1>0.5.