model {
q[1] <- 0.5; q[2] <- 0.5 # prior assumptions
r <- 8; n <- 8 # data
r ~ dbin(theta[pick], n) # likelihood
pick ~ dcat(q[])
theta[1] <- 0.5 # if random (assumption 1)
theta[2] ~ dunif(0.5, 0.55) # if psychic
psychic <- pick - 1 # 1 if psychic, 0 otherwise
}
node mean sd MC error 2.5% median 97.5% start sample
psychic 0.6012 0.4896 0.001601 0.0 1.0 1.0 1 100000