model {
sN ~ dexp(0.5) # life without transplant (mean 2)
oT ~ dbern(0.8) # survive operation (prob 0.8)
sP ~ dexp(0.2) # life if survive transplant (mean 5)
sT <- oT*sP # total life time if choose transplant
Ic <- 20000 + 3000*sT # total additional cost of transplant
Is <- sT - sN # total additional survival
r <- Ic/Is # individual cost per additional year
}

   node   mean   sd   MC error   2.5%   median   97.5%   start   sample
   Ic   3.2E+4   14690.0   14.56   2.0E+4   27050.0   71990.0   1   1000000
   Is   2.002   5.287   0.005213   -5.68   0.6658   15.64   1   1000000
   oT   0.7999   0.4   3.952E-4   0.0   1.0   1.0   1   1000000
   r   -5885.0   7.948E+6   7904.0   -184600.0   5278.0   111100.0   1   1000000
   sN   1.998   2.001   0.001936   0.05045   1.382   7.386   1   1000000
   sP   4.995   4.992   0.005088   0.1261   3.469   18.46   1   1000000
   sT   4.0   4.896   0.004855   0.0   2.351   17.33   1   1000000

[example-2_6_1-heart-transplant0][example-2_6_1-heart-transplant1]